Eye on the Horizon: Market Anticipate Inflation Data Ahead

Tuesday, 14th May 2024, 14:30 – US PPI (YoY) (Apr)

The Producer Price Index, which is an important gauge of wholesale-level inflation, increased by 2.1% over the 12 months leading up to March. This marks a rise from the 1.6% gain observed in February, representing its most substantial increase since April 2023. This indicates significant pressures within the supply chain that could contribute to sustained high levels of inflation. With the U.S. economy and inflation remaining strong, there’s an expectation in the market that these supply side pressures may continue to impact consumers in the months ahead.

Wednesday, 15th May 2024, 14:30 – US CPI (MoM) (Apr)

In March, consumer prices in the U.S. rose beyond expectations as consumer price index increases 0.4% in March, driven by higher costs for gasoline and rental housing. The consistent strong consumer price readings reported by the Labor Department for the third consecutive month imply that the earlier uptick in inflation during January and February cannot be solely attributed to businesses raising prices at the start of the year, as previously argued by economists. Therefore, the upcoming data release is anticipated to maintain the trend of relatively elevated inflation seen this year.

Wednesday, 15th May 2024, 14:30 – U.S Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

In March, U.S. retail sales surpassed expectations, with Core Retail Sales increasing by 1.1%, up from 0.6% in the previous month, fueled by a surge in online retail receipts. This reinforces the notion that the economy ended the first quarter on a solid footing. The robust retail sales figures prompted economists at Goldman Sachs to raise their first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth estimate to a 3.1% annualized rate, up from a previous estimate of 2.5%. Despite higher inflation and borrowing costs, consumer spending remains resilient, suggesting that upcoming data is likely to continue reflecting strong economic activity.

Thursday, 16th May 2024, 03:30 – Australia Unemployment Rate (Apr)

Australia’s headline unemployment rate edged up slightly to 3.8% in March from 3.7% in the February, with a decrease in employment by 7,000 people and an increase in unemployment by 21,000 people. The data underscores the challenge posed by high inflation and cost-of-living pressures, which are creating difficult conditions for many businesses, impacting employment. There is an ongoing expectation that the labor market will continue to gradually ease in strength as the effects of higher interest rates persist in the economy.